The Villans Defy Gravity Again as Winning Streak Rolls On at Chelsea

It simply cannot continue. It makes no rational sense for it to persist. And yet, it does.

A Record-Chasing Triumph Defying Expectations

Aston Villa entered the weekend's Premier League encounter at Chelsea looking to equal a club record of eleven consecutive wins, matching runs set in 1897 and 1914. For the opening hour, achieving it seemed improbable, as the hosts dominated proceedings, took the lead, and could have added several more. However, Chelsea have shown frailty when ahead, particularly at home, while Villa now possess a remarkable habit of snatching wins on the road after falling behind.

First, Ollie Watkins leveled the scores, the ball ricocheting in off his shin and the post following his first effort was blocked by Robert Sánchez. Later on, he nodded in the decisive goal with a deft header. This marked just his fourth and fifth league goals of the campaign. Watkins might believe a bit of luck was overdue, and there's no question the equalizing goal involved a large slice of luck. At the moment, however, fortune seems to be favoring Villa.

The Statistics Behind an Unlikely Run

The last nine of these 11 straight wins have been by a single goal. They have kept a shutout in only one of those matches. Their underlying metrics have been superior in only six of those encounters, and in a couple of those, the advantage was minimal. Their last five road Premier League victories have all come from behind. This formula seems unsustainable, yet observers have been claiming that for some time, and Villa keep on winning. The key question is whether their results will finally align with their performances or if their performances can improve to justify the points haul.

This seems unsustainable be sustainable, but everybody's been stating that for a while and Villa keep on winning.

A Core Trait: Resilience

Fighting back is not merely a feature of this season. Over the past 3 seasons, no side has gained more points when trailing than Villa's 54; Eighteen of those have been secured this term, fifty percent more than the next best team, Sunderland. This season, Villa players from the bench have contributed 9 goals. Two important points can be made about Villa under Unai Emery.

• Firstly, they possess a deep-rooted self-belief that means no game ever feels beyond them. This is, to an extent, self-perpetuating: the more they come from behind, the more they believe they can do it again.
• Secondly, Emery has proven very adept at changing games with his substitutions.

A Masterful Change

While Chelsea won the expected goals 2.1-1.4, Villa were the dominant force from the moment, around the hour mark, when Emery executed a triple substitution. Watkins replaced Donyell Malen, who had found it difficult with few chances. Immediately, the ball began to stick, and Watkins's movement in behind created issues. Onana and Jadon Sancho also came on, strengthening the midfield and providing the width they had eschewed earlier.

The Blues registered 10 shots to Villa's zero before the changes; afterwards, Villa had 11 chances to Chelsea's four. By the final whistle, Villa were commanding and could easily have won by a greater margin. Not for the first time, Chelsea boss Enzo Maresca seemed unable to react as the game slipped away; the sense remains that he is better at devising a tactical plan with time to prepare than making adjustments on the fly.

Moment of Magic

Villa have also developed a welcome habit of players producing pieces of match-winning quality to turn games. Rogers has been decisive at Leeds, West Ham, and against Manchester United. The image of him working the ball onto his favored foot and whipping a finish into the top corner has become a recurring leitmotif. It was the winger who changed the game from the bench at Leeds. Watkins changed the game at Stamford Bridge. The performances of players such as Ezri Konsa and Lindelof on Saturday were key. At present, it's not always the entire team playing flawlessly, but enough players within it stepping up to earn the victories.

The Road Ahead

Can they keep going? They now sit three points behind Arsenal, and as the season approaches its midway point, they must be considered as in the championship conversation, arguably more so than club world champions Chelsea or defending champions Liverpool. The upcoming away fixture at Arsenal will be a significant examination of that status. Villa defeated Arsenal on the first weekend of December, a match in which they not only had better the xG but posted an xG 40% higher than any other side has managed against Arsenal in the league this season.

The Gunners have since put together their own run of narrow victories, winning three in a row without ever being wholly convincing. The upcoming clash will be a challenge for both teams – and if Villa win a twelfth game in a row, it would become increasingly difficult to deny their championship pedigree.