MAGA Voters Backing Mamdani and a New Progressive Alliance: Key Surprises from NYC’s Mayoral Race

Only two days before the New York race for mayor, political analyst Michael Lange made a bold electoral prediction – not just who would win citywide, and precinct by precinct. Lange, a political analyst born and raised in the city, devoted more than ten years in progressive politics and has become something of a local celebrity this year for his deep dives into city data and voter surveys.

He released his extremely precise forecast map – which correctly forecast that the progressive candidate would win while failed to predict Andrew Cuomo’s strong performance – on his newsletter, the Narrative War. He has a flair for clever terms. He pointed out, as an example, the divide between the progressive stronghold, running from Park Slope to another area to Astoria, where he forecasted (correctly) that Mamdani would triumph by large leads, and the “capitalist corridor” on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, “the Free Press and financial newspapers surpass the New York Times” in readership and most voters leaned toward the independent, who ran as a moderate alternative.

Voting Day Trends and Surprises

What was your election night?

I had to do that since they were adding around 200,000 votes into the system every few minutes! I was actually somewhat anxious at the beginning: Mamdani led the early vote by 12 points, but there were large groups of votes that came in after that and the advantage dropped from 12 to 8%. I was worried.

You know, there was a world where election day went kind of poorly for him, in which the opponent was going to end up basically doubling his votes from the Democratic primary. But Mamdani added 500,000 supporters to his primary coalition, and that’s a huge reason why he won. He campaigned and massively expanded his support from the first round.

Coalition Building

How did the mayor-elect get those extra votes from?

He built the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: it’s multiracial, it’s young, it’s renters and it’s people facing cost pressures. He improved significantly with minority communities, everyday New Yorkers, relative to the earlier election. Additionally he further maximized his base of left-leaning activists, youthful radicals, and Muslims and south Asians. Victory required without making those significant inroads.

He built the alliance that the left always wanted to build: multiracial, youthful, renters and people squeezed by affordability

There were also some Trump/Mamdani voters – is this significant?

It is a genuine phenomenon, confined to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Muslims. Voters in immigrant strongholds that went for the former president last year backed Zohran this year. However I wouldn’t say he was winning over Caucasian laborers and Maga voters.

Voter Participation and Effects

A major development of the election was the record turnout. Who benefited?

Both sides. Participation was significantly higher than I had expected. I thought it could go over 2 million, but it reached 2.3M – that is a lot of darn voters. Existed a substantial anti-Mamdani block, energized, but the Mamdani base was equally driven, and that sufficed to win.

You forecasted he’d exceed half the ballots. Is he likely for that?

Currently you would say he’s likely to surpass half. He’s at just over 50% but there’s still probably 200K ballots uncounted at that time. Thus it’s not certain, but I think probable, and I hope he does because afterwards no one can say Sliwa was a spoiler.

GOP Decline

Curtis Sliwa, the Republican candidate, was another surprise. His vote plummeted.

He didn’t win any district in any area. Including Tottenville in the borough, which is like an highly conservative area. That really surprised me. Cuomo kept Caucasian districts, affluent zones and very religiously Jewish areas, and plus gained many conservatives on the island who had a high participation. I believe occurred a lot of tactical voting by GOP voters. This happened before Trump tweeted his support for Cuomo, but it assisted. It might have changed the outcome if the winning alliance hadn’t grown.

Progressive Strongholds

What about your often-discussed “commie corridor” – did backing for the candidate overwhelming in those parts of Brooklyn and Queens?

I think there was a little dilution of the progressive zone in some areas like Astoria or Greenpoint that have older Caucasian residents. There, for example, the Greek landlords and homeowners supported the independent. Thus there was some opposition. However no, largely the commie corridor is another huge reason why Zohran won – he scored between 77% and 83% in specific neighborhoods.

Jewish Voters

Prior to the vote we reported on whether Mamdani was making inroads with Jewish New Yorkers. Is there any suggestion that he did?

Exist areas with many non-religious and left-inclined voters – like Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he did well. However in the affluent districts like the Upper East Side, his position on Israel was influential in those places. Likewise in the more middle-class Jewish areas including Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Bronx areas – they favored Cuomo. And also, you have newcomers from the former Soviet Union in southern Brooklyn, who were pretty staunchly Cuomo. Therefore I don’t know if there were crazy narrative-busters on this one, but he did hold more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and even parts of the Upper West Side by big margins.

Long-Term Significance

Has Mamdani rewritten what New York represents in politics? Will the commie corridor serve as a springboard for progressive contenders?

Absolutely, it’s not accidental that key political leaders from progressives come from a few areas in the boroughs. I believe that we’ll see more of that – candidates will emerge from these areas to be elevated nationally.

However I think that each urban center in the US can have their own commie corridor. Urban places are the epicenters of leftwing power in the nation – because they’re young, people rent and they represent locales where people are crushed by the inequalities exist.