Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has possesses something to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
